Half of China's heavy trucks sold in September were electric

September's heavy-truck market in China did not flip to electric in a single official release. The turn shows up in the sales tallies commercial-vehicle desks publish after the month closes, and those tallies do not match each other.

商用车早知道, republished by NetEase on 20 October, put September new-energy heavy-truck sales at 33,100, up 37 percent on the year and 23 percent on August. Penetration was 50.28 percent. The note also said the wider heavy-truck market fell 21 percent in a month that is usually strong. For January through September it counted 226,400 new-energy heavy trucks, up 64 percent, a 38.10 percent share.

电车资源's industry research institute, writing through Autohome on 16 October, counted 33,430 for September, up 37.2 percent, and 229,238 for the first nine months, up 65.3 percent. The direction agrees. The month differs by 330 trucks, and the year-to-date gap is nearly 3,000. Electrek's 2 November account used the 33,100 figure and a 50.3 percent share, and it supplied the longer run: a 13.6 percent new-energy share of heavy trucks in 2024, then 231,100 sales and a 28.9 percent share in 2025.

On the 商用车早知道 board, Sinotruk was first with 5,502, FAW Jiefang second with 5,130 and XCMG third with 5,121. 电车资源 had XCMG first on 5,164 and Sinotruk second on 5,077. A reader who wants the September winner is asking which count, not which factory. Both put the same three groups at the front. They do not agree on the order.

Tractors are where the share looks sharper, and where the percentages answer different questions. 商用车早知道 said new-energy tractors were 25,600 in September, 64.48 percent of tractors, with FAW Jiefang first on 4,607. 电车资源's tractor count was 25,483, which was 76.2 percent of its new-energy heavy-truck total. One figure is the share of all tractors. The other is the share of the new-energy mix.

Sina Finance's 2 November report, written around the hydrogen tally, used the 33,100 headline and then split it. Battery-electric trucks were 32,800, hybrids 266 and fuel-cell trucks 36. Fuel-cell heavy trucks were down 94 percent on the year in September. The year-to-date fuel-cell total was 689, down 70 percent, with Dongfeng accounting for 307. In this market, "new energy" is a battery-truck number.

The plug is changing too. 电车资源 said cable-charged trucks were 26,759 in September, 80 percent of its total and up 64.6 percent, while battery-swap trucks were 6,425, down 13.9 percent, the first monthly year-on-year decline it had recorded in 2026.

The claim that the heavy-truck market shrank by 21 percent is a terminal figure, and it should stay labelled that way. Dongwu Securities analyst Huang Xili's October note, as carried by Sina, put September wholesale at 99,000, down 6.5 percent, terminal registrations at 66,000, down 21.1 percent, and exports at 41,000, up 29.4 percent. The note links the registration drop to a fading trade-in effect and to orders pulled forward when the AEBS emergency-braking rule changed in mid-July. It also says Weichai's engine share fell because natural-gas trucks lost ground and new-energy trucks gained it.

Electrek, reporting Kpler's estimates, put China's diesel demand on course for a fall of about 230,000 barrels a day across 2026, after year-on-year drops of about 420,000 barrels a day in May and 460,000 in June, with only a small rebound pencilled in for 2027. A Bloomberg account carried by Transport Topics on 30 September, before these September tallies closed, said Sinopec's research institute expected diesel use to fall more than 10 percent in 2026, and that BloombergNEF counted more than nine in ten electric trucks sold worldwide in the first half inside China.

The September share does not by itself prove either oil forecast. It does tell a fleet buyer that a diesel heavy truck is no longer the default purchase in the largest truck market, and that "half" still depends on whether the month is counted at 33,100 or 33,430, and on whether the comparison is registrations or factory wholesale.